CD Skripsi
ANALISIS DETERMINAN IMPORTED INFLATION DI INDONESIA
The term “imported inflation” refers to external factors that have the
potential to influence changes in national prices of goods and services. Using
secondary data covering the years 2003-2022, this study attempts to examine the
variables of imports, world crude oil prices, and the rupiah exchange rate against
the US dollar as external factors affecting Indonesia's inflation. The autoregressive
distributed lag (ARDL) model is used in the multiple linear regression analysis for
the data. Based on the results of data analysis, it is found that there is a significant
long-run relationship between the research variables. In the long run, the import
variable significantly and negatively affects the Indonesian inflation variable. The
Indonesian inflation variable is not significantly affected by the world crude oil
price variable. In the short term, Indonesia's inflation variable is positively and
significantly influenced by the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar. In
addition, the conclusion of this study shows that the Indonesian government can
maintain exchange rate stability by utilizing fiscal and monetary policies. This is
done to keep the price of imported goods in the country stable and affordable. The
Indonesian government should also pay attention to the movement of world crude
oil prices.
Keywords: inflation, import, world crude oil prices, exchange rates, ARDL
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