CD Skripsi
Analisis Kausalitas Tingkat Inflasi Dan Tingkat Pengangguran Di Provinsi Riau Periode 2006 (2) – 2018 (8)
This study aims to determine whether there is a causal relationship between the inflation rate and unemployment rate in Riau Province for the period of 2006 (2) - 2018 (8) and to find out whether there is a significant influence between the inflation rate and unemployment rate in Riau Province in 2006 - 2018.
This study uses secondary data in the form of quantiative data in the form of time series, namely data on open unemployment rates and data on the magnitude of the inflation rate. In this study, the model used is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) technique and the Granger Causality Test to see the causality or reciprocity of the two variables studied. This study uses an analytical tool Eviews 10.
From the tests that have been done, the results obtained are that between inflation and the unemployment rate there is a one-way relationship, where the unemployment rate affects inflation, while inflation does not affect unemployment. Then in the long run it shows that the unemployment rate (UNP) has no effect on inflation (INF). Then in the short term unemployment in lag 1 has a significant negative effect, which is equal to -0.275596. Keywords: Inflation, Unemployment, VECM, Granger Causality.
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