CD Skripsi
Analisis Efektivitas Mekanisme Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter Melalui Jalur Kredit Di Indonesia Periode 2010- 2018
The impact of monetary policy implementation on inflation is not immediate but there is a time lag. This happens because of the operational mechanism of the monetary policy instrument in influencing the final target through channels, known as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study aims to determine the time lag needed by the monetary variable in the credit channel until the realization of the inflation as final target and the contribution of each variable to inflation. The data used in this study are time series data from 2010 to 2018 sourced from Bank Indonesia. The variables in this study are the BI Rate, time deposit rates, bank reserve, loan, output gap and inflation. This study uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyze data.
The results of this study indicate that deposit rates require a 2 quarter time lag to respond to the shock BI rate. Bank reserves require 1 quarter to respond to the shock of deposit rates. loan require 1 quarter lag time to respond to the shock of bank reserves. The output gap variable requires 1 quarter time lag to respond to the credit shock and inflation needs a quarterly time lag to respond to the output gap shock. Thus, the time lag needed from the monetary policy variable through the credit channel to the realization of the final target is around 6 quarters. The BI rate has a contribution in influencing inflation of up to 17,07%, contribution of deposit interest rates up to 28%, contribution of bank reserves up to 3,43%, contribution of loans up to 10.50%, contribution of output gap up to 0,075% and the biggest contributions is inflation up to 69,92%.
Keywords: monetary policy, credit channel, VECM, Time Lag, and BI rate.
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