CD Tesis
Mitigasi Risiko Keterlambatan Proyek Sumur Injeksi Migas X Dengan Penerpan Schedule Risk Analysis
The oil and gas injection well drilling project is one of the methods used to
optimize oil and gas production in old oil fields by utilizing water as an injection
medium which will later fill the pores of the reservoir rock and force the
remaining petroleum to flow into production wells. In an oil and gas injection
well drilling project, there are 3 main stages that must be passed for the
completion of 1 injection well, namely the construction stage of road preparation
and location for drilling (pre-drilling), the drilling stage (drilling) and the
construction and installation of facilities for operation stage (post-drilling). This
project is a very complex and has various risks that can affect the time, cost and
quality of the project.
The problem that is often encountered in the construction of a project is
not identifying the risks that can lead to not achieving work targets in the areas of
project time, cost and quality. In general, the scheduling used is deterministic
scheduling that does not yet have a probabilistic component of the risks that may
occur. For this reason, it is necessary to apply Schedule Risk Analysis with a
stochastic approach at the planning stage so that countermeasures can be carried
out for risks that arise during implementation.
The purpose of this study is to identify the dominant risk delays, apply
Schedule Risk Analysis with 3 schedule models using Monte Carlo simulation on
Primavera Risk Analysis software, and provide suggestions for handling dominant
risks. The methods used for primary data collection are questionnaires and
interviews, then the results of the questionnaires are analyzed using the Severity
Index method and followed by a risk matrix to determine the level of risk.
The results showed that there were 26 factors of risk delay with 5
dominant risks. Implementation of Schedule Risk Analysis with a prediction of
80% (P80) obtained a delay proportion of 153.07% in the schedule model before
repairs and after relief was carried out, obtaining a delay royalty of 16.92% with
a decrease in project delays of 136.15%.
Key words: risk, risk management, delay, severity index, schedule risk analysis
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