CD Skripsi

Perbandingan Kinerja Metode Arima Dengan Thomas-Fiering Untuk Memprediksi Debit Daerah Aliran Sungai Siak (Studi Kasus: Pos Duga Air Pekanbaru)

---

The availability of long-term river discharge data covering at least 30 years is needed for proper hydrological studies, one of the steps to prevent flooding on the Siak River is to utilize river flow discharge information, several stochastic methods suitable for predicting monthly discharge data include the ARIMA and Thomas- Fiering methods. This study aims to predict the monthly discharge of the Siak River Basin (Pekanbaru Water Post) with the ARIMA and Thomas-Fiering methods and analyze the reliability of the two methods. The research began with the RAPS test, then the prediction of discharge with several schemes, followed by accuracy assessment using MAPE, RMSE, Nash-Sutcliffe, and correlation coefficient r. From the results of the accuracy assessment on all prediction schemes, the MAPE value of the Thomas-Fiering method (1 very good, 5 good, 1 fair) is superior to the ARIMA method (1 very good, 3 good, 3 fair), the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of the Thomas-Fiering method (2 very good, 5 unsatisfactory) is superior to the ARIMA method (1 very good, 6 unsatisfactory), the correlation coefficient r of the Thomas- Fiering method (3 very strong, 4 strong) is superior to the ARIMA method (1 very strong, 2 strong, 3 medium, 1 low), and the correlation coefficient r of the Thomas- Fiering method (3 very strong, 4 strong) is better than the ARIMA method (1 very strong, 2 strong, 3 medium, 1 low), and the RMSE assessment of the Thomas- Fiering method is superior to the ARIMA method with 5 out of 7 assessments closer to 0, so it is concluded that the Thomas-Fiering method tends to be more accurate for predicting the monthly discharge of the Siak watershed (Pos Duga Air Pekanbaru) with the best prediction of 1 year discharge prediction using 5 years of observed discharge with MAPE, RMSE, Nash-Sutcliffe, and correlation coefficient r values of 7.42%, 26.76 m3/det, 0.92, and 0.96, respectively.


Keywords: Siak Watershed, Discharge Data, ARIMA, Thomas-Fiering.

---

Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

-

No. Panggil

2007112349

Penerbit

Pekanbaru : Universitas Riau - Fakultas Teknik - Teknik Sipil S I., 2024

Deskripsi Fisik

-

Bahasa

Indonesia

ISBN/ISSN

-

Klasifikasi

2007112349

Tipe Isi

-

Tipe Media

-

Tipe Pembawa

-

Edisi

-

Subjek

TEKNIK SIPIL

Info Detail Spesifik

-

Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

Zenny

Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

Komentar

---

Anda harus masuk sebelum memberikan komentar