CD Skripsi
Prediksi Curah Hujan Bulanan Di Das Siak Dengan Model Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (Sarima)
ABSTRACT
Hydrological analysis requires input from various data to be able to perform a good analysis. One of the most important data to be used in hydrological analysis is rainfall data. Rainfall is an important parameter to estimate the water available for plants and also to determine the hydrological quantities to be used. Rainfall data in a watershed can be used in various fields. In this study, the watershed used as a source of rainfall data is the Siak Watershed. The SARIMA model is one of the time series analysis methods that can be used to predict and model monthly rainfall. The software used in this study is Excel software used at the beginning of the study and Minitab software which will be used to process and analyze the data used. Based on the analysis of the results of rainfall prediction in the Siak Watershed using the SARIMA method. The best values of MSE, RMSE, MAE, MAPE, SMAPE, and Correlation Coefficient for the total amount of rainfall (mm) per month are 5,063; 71.15; 59.60; 20.37%; 22.93% and 0.574.
Kata Kunci: Siak Watershed, SARIMA, Minitab, Rainfall
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