CD Skripsi

Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen Provinsi Riau Menggunakan Double Exponential Smoothing Holt Dengan Parameter Damped

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an important indicator for measuring the level of inflation in a region. Accurate CPI forecasting is essential for economic planning, policy making and risk management. This research uses the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt (DES Holt) method with Damped parameters to overcome the problem of overforecasting or underforecasting. This research aims to predict the CPI in Riau Province from 2018 to 2023 using Damped Holt DES parameters. The research results show that the MAPE value using DES Holt is 1.1034, and DES Holt with Damped parameters is 0.8896. Holt's DES method with Damped parameters is better for forecasting the next 12 months on CPI data. The forecast for ten months from January 2024 to December 2024 is 116.8997, 116.8999, 116.9000, 116.9001, 116.9002, 116.9002, 116.9003, 116.9003, 116.9003, 116.9004, 116.9004 and 116.9004. The forecast results from December 2023 show an increase every month, although not significant, the increase that occurred from January 2024 to December 2024 was 0.0007.
Keywords: Consumer Price Index, Damped parameters, DES Holt, Forecasting

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Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

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No. Panggil

2003113626

Penerbit

Pekanbaru : Universitas Riau FMIPA Statistika., 2024

Deskripsi Fisik

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Bahasa

Indonesia

ISBN/ISSN

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Klasifikasi

2003113626

Tipe Isi

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Tipe Media

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Tipe Pembawa

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Edisi

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Subjek

STATISTIKA

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

Mutia

Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

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