CD Skripsi
Analisis Model Intervensi Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Jumlah Wisatawan Mancanegara Di Indonesia
ABSTRACT
The Indonesian government has made a policy to reduce the spread of the
coronavirus by restricting entry/exit to Indonesian territory. As a result, there is a
decrease in the number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia. The decrease in the
data pattern was studied using the ARIMA Intervention method. The ARIMA
Intervention method is used to see how big and how long duration entry/exit
restrictions impact due to the Covid-19 pandemic on the number of foreign
tourists in Indonesia. The results of this study show that forecasting the number of
foreign tourist from August 2020 until May 2021 was obtained with a MAPE
value of 9.74%. Hence, the ARIMA Intervention is a very good classification in
predicting the number of foreign tourists in Indonesia since a MAPE value less
than 10%.
Keywords: Covid-19 pandemic, foreign tourists, ARIMA, intervention
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