CD Tesis

Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Dalam Kaitan Dengan Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah Kabupaten Kampar

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Kampar Regency is one area that is growing rapidly in Riau Province. Indicators of growth in an area can be generally seen from the value of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). BPS Kampar (2018) notes that the GRDP figure based on the constant price of the last four years there has been a positive GRDP growth of Rp. 45,82 trillion in 2014 to Rp. 49,04 trillion in 2017. This means that the average annual economic growth of Kampar Regency is 2,29%. In addition, the development of population in the last 5 years (2013-2017) increased by 79.011 people with an average growth rate of 2,37% per year (BPS Kampar, 2018)
The increase in population has implications for the increased need for space that can change the use of a certain land to another land use. The fact is that land use that occurs in Kampar District is that forests are experiencing deforestation, oil palm plantations are always increasing, agriculture land for food is always declining, and land is built which tends to increase every year. If this pattern continiues in the future it will damage the environmental balance. Thus, spatial requirments thar are reflected by future land use need to be carried out to be analyzed, by looking at patterns of land use change and the factors driving past land use changes, so that the use of space as specified in the Regional spatial Plan (RTRW) Kampar Regency can be controlled.
This study aims to include ; 1) Analyzing patterns of land use change that occurred in Kampar Regency during the last 20 years (1998-2008-2018), 2) Analyzing the driving factors that influence changes in lad use in Kampar Regency, 3) Developing a model land use in Kampar Regency in 2028, 4) Formulating directives for improvement of the Kampar Regency Reginal Spatial Plan.
This research was conducted from March 2019 – October 2019. The research methode use was a survey methode with remote sensing techniques using GIS and Spatial modeling. The pattern of land use change is obtained from the results of overlapping land use at three points in the year, namely 1998, 2008, and 2018. Factors driving change in land use in Kampar Regency were analyzed using binarylogistic regression with a stepwise methode (forward stepwise). Estimating factors : population density, slope of land, altitude, rainfall, distance to the main road, distance to the driver, and distance to the district town.
Spatial modeling of land use in 2028 uses the CA-Markove method with the scenarios, namely :1) scenario 1 (Businnes As Usual) is a land use change scenario without restrictions and controls, 2) scenario II (moderate) is scenario with an ecological/environmental policy that is to provide rules for stopping forest change in forest areas, and plantations may only increase in production forest areas, 3) scenario III (optimistic) is an ecological/environmental and food security policy scenario that is moderate coupled with stopping paddt fields and forestry of open land and shurbs within the forest area. The directions for improvement of the Kampar Regency RTRW are analyzed by overlapping the spatial pattern of Kampar Regency 2019-2039 with the results of modeling three land use scenarios in 2028. The results of the land use suitability analysis that has the smallest discrepancy with the RTRW will be used as a basis for the formulation of directions for improving the Regency RTRW.
The results showed a pattern of changes in land use in Kampar Regency in the periode 1998-2008-2018 totaling 187 patterns. There are two types of change patterns, namely a) the patterns of change from vegetated land use to vegetated land use, including 2 patterns with dominan area : 1) forest  plantation  plantation, 2) mix plantation  plantation  plantation; 2) the pattern of changes in the use of vegetation to non vegetation include 2 patterns with dominan area : 1) forest  forest  open land , 2) mix plantations  built land  built land.
Population density, altitude, slope, distance to the main road, distance to the river, and distance to the subdistrict city are the driving factors that influence changes in the use of forest land to plantations, mixed plantations to plantations, forests to pen land, and mixed plantations to built up land in Kampar Regency.
The results of spatial modeling of land use in 2028 using CA-Markove with 3 scenarios indicate an increase or reduction on several types of land use, especially forests, plantations, rice fields and developed land. The use of forest land occus in abroad reduction in secanrio I, and scenario II, in contrast experiences an increase in area in scenario III; plantation land use shows the addition of the three scenarios created; likewise the developed land shows addition to all three scenarios; furthemoer, there is a reduction in paddy fields in scenario I and scenario II, but in scenario III the use of paddy does not experience any addition or reduction.
The directions for improvement of the Kampar Regency RTRW can be selected 2 alternatives policies from the three land use scenario model in 2028 as follows : 1) scenario 1 of the ecology/environment oriented policy and foos security. This policy can reduce land use mismatches with the RTRW patten in 2028 to 10.451 Ha (0,92%), 2) scenario II of the ecology/environment oriented policy. This policy can reduce land use mismatches with the spatial plan pattern in 2028 to 10.723 ha (0,94%).

Keywords : Land use change, spatial model, CA-Markove, spatial pattern of RTRW

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Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

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No. Panggil

10 01. 220 (0018)

Penerbit

Pekanbaru : Universitas Riau – Pascasarjana – Tesis Ilmu Lingkungan., 2020

Deskripsi Fisik

xv, 184 hlm,; ill.: 29 cm

Bahasa

Indonesia

ISBN/ISSN

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Klasifikasi

10 01. 220 (0018)

Tipe Isi

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Tipe Media

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Tipe Pembawa

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Edisi

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Subjek

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Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

FATAH

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