CD Skripsi
Peramalan Jumlah Kunjungan Pasien Di Rsud Dr. Achmad Darwis Menggunakan Prophet Forecasting Model
Serving as a primary healthcare facility that offers medical services to the community, the RSUD Dr Achmad Darwis faces challenges in managing the fluctuations in the number of patient visits based on observations during the 2019-2023 period. These fluctuations have resulted in difficulties in delivering effective medical services. Therefore, this study aims to forecast the number of patient visits at RSUD Dr Achmad Darwis, providing valuable insights for the hospital in preparing more effective service strategies. This study employs the Prophet Forecasting Model method as it is considered more appropriate and potential for optimization. The data used encompasses the number of patient visits from January 2019 to June 2023, measured daily. The research experiment employs three main models: the Basic Prophet, the Prophet with Additional Holiday Components, and the Prophet with Hyperparameter Tuning. Each model is tested with a training data allocation of 70%, 80%, and 90%. Based on the experimental results, the best model is found in the third experiment, with a MAPE of 20,90%. Consequently, this study has the potential to provide valuable knowledge for better planning and decision-making in addressing fluctuations in patient visits at RSUD Dr. Achmad Darwis.
Keywords: MAPE, Prophet Forecasting Model, RSUD
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