CD Skripsi
Model Arima Pada Pertumbuhan Penumpang Angkutan Udara: Sebuah Studi Kasus
This final project discusses a forecasting using Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average (ARIMA) model. The forecasting method is used to forecast the
number of departure and arrival of domestic passengers, at PT. Angkasa Pura
II the Branch Office of Sultan Syarif Kasim II Pekanbaru in 2016. The time
series data generally contain trend and seasonal elements. Using R language,
this study shows several models, there are: (1) ARIMA (2, 1, 2)(1, 0, 1)12, (2)
ARIMA(0, 1, 2)(0, 0, 1)12 and (3) ARIMA(1, 1, 2)(0, 0, 1)12 models. The best
model is selected by the criteria of the smallest square the root of mean square
error values. Consequently, model (1) is the best model.
Keywords: Forecasting, trend and seasonal elements, R language, ARIMA
model, root of mean square error
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