CD Tesis

Analisis Kelayakan Finansial Pembangunan Koneksi Pelabuhan Kapal Roll-On Roll-Off (Ro-Ro) Dumai – Malaka

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To encourage the development of the ASEAN Economic Community (MEA)
implementation area, the Dumai – Melaka Ro-Ro Ferry Port is one of the three Ro-Ro
Ferry Ports that will be prioritized for development alongside the General Santos –
Bitung and Belawan – Penang – Phuket Ro-Ro Ship Routes. The Ro-Ro ship route
through Bitung - Davao Santos City does not consider return on investment and
financial feasibility. Meanwhile, for the Ro-Ro ship route Belawan - Penang - Phuket,
Belawan Medan Port no longer provides shipping to Malaysia due to the impact of
cheap air transport prices. From these results, it can be said that the Belawan - Penang
- Phuket and General Santos - Bitung routes are not financially viable.
In order to realize the program, it is necessary to make preparations in the form
of providing basic facilities and facilities that will use large funding/investments. The
total investment is Rp. 56,702,000,000.00 with a project life of 30 years. With a high
investment value, the development plan involves risks and uncertainties that affect the
investment and financial feasibility of the project. So it is necessary to analyze the
financial feasibility of the plan to build a Ro-Ro ship connection Dumai – Malacca.
This study conducted a financial feasibility analysis of the planned construction of
the Dumai - Malacca Ro-Ro ship connection using a probabilistic stochastic approach
in terms of data input and output results. The data simulation was performed using the
Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) method that involves a stochastic distribution in the form
of Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) Diagrams and Probability Distribution
Function (PDF) Diagrams, which are new to this study and distinguish it from previous
to investigate.
Based on a deterministic analysis, the net present value / NPV results are negative
with a NPV of IDR 11,520.6 million at maturity. In addition, a stochastic analysis using
@Risk software with a 95% confidence level confirms that the project has a 95%
chance of having an NPV value of Rp.-2,407.170,000 at the end of the design life, is not
financially feasible to performed. Hence, from the results of the sensitivity analysis
through a stochastic and deterministic approach, it is known that the most
sensitivevariable is the cost of the construction of docks and port facilities, so a
proposed scenario is needed for the development plan to be financially viable. The
proposed scenario is State Capital Investment (PMN), which is given between 10% -
40% of the total construction cost, which shows better results compared to the base
situation where at the time of the scenario conditions, the 95% probability of the NPV is
IDR 17,111,680,000 at the end of its design life.
Keywords: Ro-Ro Ship, Investment, Financial Analysis, Net Present Value,
Deterministic, Stochastic, Sensitivity Analysis

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Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

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No. Panggil

10 12. 221 (0013)

Penerbit

Pekanbaru : Universitas Riau – Pascasarjana – Tesis Teknik Sipil., 2021

Deskripsi Fisik

xiv, 82 hlm.: ill.: 29 cm

Bahasa

Indonesia

ISBN/ISSN

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Klasifikasi

10 12. 221 (0013)

Tipe Isi

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Tipe Media

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Tipe Pembawa

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Edisi

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Subjek

TEKNIK SIPIL

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

FATAH

Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

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