ABSTRACT Forecasting using the exponential smoothing method is a time series data forecasting. In this study the data used for analysis is inflation data. Based on the pattern of time series data, the data obtained then analyzed with single exponential method and triple exponential method consisting of Holt-Winters multiplicative and Holt-Winters additive. Measeurement of forecasting accuracy …
ABSTRACT The stock price is an indicator of the success of a company. The higher and more stable the stock price, the better the company's value in the market. Shares are proof of ownership of capital invested by investors. The purpose of this study is to predict the stock price of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk using the decomposition method. The decomposition method is a time series data forecasti…
ABSTRACT Internet users in Indonesia have reached 210 million people in December 2022. One of the activities of internet users is shopping through Shopee e-commerce which provides ShopeePay and Shopee PayLater payment features. In improving these features, it is important for Shopee to know user reviews as an evaluation to improve the quality that can be seen on the Google Play Store. This stu…
ABSTRACT Corporate bankruptcy is characterized by financial difficulties. Therefore researchers want to classify with the aim of predicting the bankruptcy status of Limited Liability Companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2021 using the XGBoost method. The variables used are the financial ratios Net Working Capital to Total Assets (WCTA), Retained Earnings to Total Assets (RETA), Earning…
ABSTRACT The number of women who die from any cause of death related to pregnancy disorders or their management (excluding accidents, suicides or incidental cases) during pregnancy, childbirth and in the postpartum period (42 days after delivery) without taking into account the length of pregnancy per 100,000 live births is the definition mother's death. The number of maternal deaths in 2021 i…
ABSTRACT Riau University is one of the universities in Riau Province. Riau University has several faculties, one of which is FMIPA which has been around for a long time so it is necessary to measure performance to find out how far the activities have been carried out and the goals that have been set are achieved. The parameters used in performance measurement are referred to as Efficiency.…
ABSTRACT The Poverty Gap Index (PGI) is the average expenditure gap of each poor population towards the poverty line. This study aims to model PGI data using binary logistic regression with a classical approach using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method and a Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. MCMC is a popular method for obtaining information about t…
ABSTRACT Imbalanced data is one of the problems in classification analysis which can impact the decreasing of the classification performance. The imbalanced data give the bad impact to classification performance, because mostly ignore the minority class. This final project discusses the application of SMOTE and Ensemble Learning (Bagging and Boosting) for handle imbalanced data in classificati…
ABSTRACT Class imbalance is a common problem in classification analysis, where one class of data is more abundant than the other. This study compares the performance of unbalanced data class handling techniques to overcome classification problems in three data types: simulation results from data, Germany credit card data, and housing and environmental health indicator data. The methods used to…
ABSTRACT Unequal economic development is one of the causes of economic inequality. This study applies the K-prototypes method to classify districts/cities in Indonesia based on economic development indicators to assist the government in making policies. This study shows that the grouping of districts/cities in Indonesia as many as 5 clusters is the optimal cluster with the greatest silhouette …
ABSTRACT Classification analysis can be applied in many cases, one of which is in the classification of household welfare status in poor and non-poor categories. If the data analyzed contains imbalanced data, it is necessary to solve the imbalanced data to avoid misclassification. If a classification is carried out, households that are actually poor tend to be classified into non-poor household…
ABSTRACT Missing data contained in a dataset can affect the results of the analysis. This study uses a dataset of factors that affect world climate change from 1990 - 2020 which has missing data on all variables. This study aims to determine the best imputation method by comparing five imputation methods namely Mean Imputation, Median Imputation, linear interpolation, KNN Imputation, and Multi…
ABSTRACT The competition in the bottle water business industry which is growing rapidly at this time has caused dringking water companies to improve the quality of their products. Defects experienced by drinking water companies when carryng out production occur due to raw materials, equipment, methods and by employess, causing the goods produced to be damage. Therefore, it is necessary to carr…
ABSTRACT This study discusses about the classification analysis of the status of home ownership credit at one of the banks in Pekanbaru City using the naïve Bayes algorithm. The purpose of this study is to compare the results of naïve Bayes classification with variable selection using forward and backward selection without variable selection. Variables from the selection results that are inc…
ABSTRACT The autoregressive fractional integrated moving average model is a development of the Autoregressive integrated moving average model which is used for data containing elements of long memory. This model uses differencing decimal numbers. In this study, the ARFIMA model is used for modeling data on the value of oil and gas and non-oil exports in Indonesia with a monthly period from 200…
ABSTRACT Forest fires are a crucial problem in Riau Province because they cause haze pollution that affects public activities and health. In 2019, based on data from the Health Office, victims of ARI disease have reached 281,626 people. Factors that are suspected to affect the number of people with ARI disease are nitrogen dioxide ( ), sulfur dioxide ( ), the number of hotspots, and the area o…
ABSTRACT The economic growth is not going well, it will cause various problems, one of which is the occurrence of unemployment. Unemployment includes the labor force who are looking for work or are preparing for a business. The existence of a working and unemployed labor force in a region depends on the minimum wage in that region. The higher the minimum wage in an area, the higher the number …
ABSTRACT The population in North Sumatra Province consists of 14.8 million people with a male and female sex ratio of 95.60%. The disparity between women and men in North Sumatra Province is still quite high in the health, education and employment sectors. This study aims to determine the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model on the gender development index in North Sumatra Province and d…
ABSTRACT One of the nonparametric regression methods that can be used for classification is Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) which is enhanced using bootstrap aggregating (bagging) with 50 replications. This method is applied to conventional crime data, namely cases of theft which can be seen based on crime rates in Riau Province in 2016-2020. The dependent variable used is …
ABSTRACT The Indonesian government has made a policy to reduce the spread of the coronavirus by restricting entry/exit to Indonesian territory. As a result, there is a decrease in the number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia. The decrease in the data pattern was studied using the ARIMA Intervention method. The ARIMA Intervention method is used to see how big and how long duration entr…