CD Skripsi
Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Di Pulau Sumatera Tahun 2014-2019
ABSTRACT
The problem of unemployment is an important concern for the development of a
region. The open unemployment rate in Sumatra Island in 2014-2019 had an
average of 5.4%, this means that it is still above the national target of 4.8%. High
unemployment rate will hamper people's welfare. Factors that are thought to be
influencing are Economic Growth, Population Density, Labor Force Participation
Rate, and Regional Minimum Wage. In this study, panel data from 2014-2019 were
used in 10 provinces on the island of Sumatra, carried out by looking at the Scatter
Plot of each variable that is thought to be influential and does not have a certain
pattern so that it can use Spline Truncated Nonparametric Regression. This
regression is also carried out by looking at the optimum knot point of the
Generalized Cross Validation value. Based on the method used, the results show
that the above variables can explain the variance rate of the Open Unemployment
Rate of 83%, much greater than the multiple linear regression of 62%. The variables
that have a significant effect are Population Density, Labor Force Participation
Rate, and Regional Minimum Wage. The variable that does not have a significant
effect is Economic Growth.
Keywords: Open unemployment rate, multivariable linear regression,
nonparametric, spline truncated, generalized cross validation
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