CD Skripsi
Disagregasi Curah Hujan Kota DumaiDengan Pemodelan Stokastik Neymanscott Rectangular Pulse
ABSTRACT
The availability of average rainfall data in Indonesia is not sufficient to be used in
hydrological analysis. The disaggregation method is one of the data generation
methods to obtain rainfall data covering high time scales and low time scales.
Rainfall data generated at lower time scales must match data at higher time scales.
In this study, rainfall disaggregation of Dumai City was carried out with Neyman-
Scott Rectangular Pulse (NSRP) stochastic modeling. Forecasting NSRP
parameters are used to generate low time scale (hourly) rainfall data. The results
of goodness of fit testing on NSRP modeling obtained a mean absolute error (MAE)
value of 0.0274 which is close to zero. This shows that the resulting parameters are
good enough but there are still some inconsistent data. Therefore, data adjustment
is carried out with the proportional adjusting procedure method so as to produce
generation data that is consistent with the original data. The data generation that
has been done can be said to be good because the results of the distribution of
rainfall data in various time scales show MAE values that are close to zero, which
means that the resulting data is consistent with the original data.
Keywords: Rainfall, disaggregation, stochastic, Neyman-Scott, adjusting
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