CD Tesis

Prediksi Debit Aliran Sungai Menggunakan Metode Arima (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) Studi Kasus Sungai Tapung Kiri

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The whole stream of Sungai Siak (Siak River) both upstream and
downstream is located in the Riau’s province. Upstream of the Siak’s watershed is
upstream for Tapung kanan River that having many tributaries. Siak’s watershed
is a critical river bashin. It causes due to significantly fluctuated the watershed. A
Large discharge fluctuations between the rainy and dry seasons could resulted in
damage caused by flooding during the rainy season and extreme drought during
the dry season. By considering the importance of river discharge data and future
forecasting, hydrological time series modeling is needed to imitate and predict the
behavior of series of river basin data. This research uses the ARIMA
(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method to develop a statistical
approach. It obtains several models with year parameters. For period of three
years model ARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 with MAPE 42% is obtained. Meanwhile for
period of five years the ARIMA model (0,1,2)(1,1,1)12 is obtained with a MAPE
of 52.5% and for the ARIMA model (0,1,1)(2,1,1)12 with MAPE of 15.7%. The
accuracy of the ARIMA model (0,1,2)(1,1,1)12 is 57.5% while for the ARIMA
model (0,1,1)(2,1,1)12 is by 84.3%. the ARIMA’s prediction results for the 9-year
period obtained the MAPE value from the ARIMA Model (0,1,2)(0,1,1)12 which is
89.7. The accuracy level of the ARIMA model is (0,1,2)(0,1,1) 12 is 11.3%. It can
be concluded that the accuracy of the ARIMA Model in predicting river flow
discharge tends to be accurate for the amount of data under 5 years, so the
ARIMA model can be used as an alternative prediction of flow discharge with the
amount of data under 5 years. Seasonal factors are decisive in the ARIMA model
because all models that do not involve seasonal factors do not meet the
parameters set in the ARIMA modeling process.
Key Words: River discharge, Period, Prediction, Model, ARIMA, MAPE,

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Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

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No. Panggil

1810246299

Penerbit

Pekanbaru : Universitas Riau – Pascasarjana – Tesis Teknik Sipil., 2023

Deskripsi Fisik

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Bahasa

Indonesia

ISBN/ISSN

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Klasifikasi

1810246299

Tipe Isi

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Tipe Media

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Tipe Pembawa

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Edisi

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Subjek

TEKNIK SIPIL

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

FATAH

Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

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