ABSTRACT The autoregressive fractional integrated moving average model is a development of the Autoregressive integrated moving average model which is used for data containing elements of long memory. This model uses differencing decimal numbers. In this study, the ARFIMA model is used for modeling data on the value of oil and gas and non-oil exports in Indonesia with a monthly period from 200…
ABSTRACT Forest fires are a crucial problem in Riau Province because they cause haze pollution that affects public activities and health. In 2019, based on data from the Health Office, victims of ARI disease have reached 281,626 people. Factors that are suspected to affect the number of people with ARI disease are nitrogen dioxide ( ), sulfur dioxide ( ), the number of hotspots, and the area o…
ABSTRACT The economic growth is not going well, it will cause various problems, one of which is the occurrence of unemployment. Unemployment includes the labor force who are looking for work or are preparing for a business. The existence of a working and unemployed labor force in a region depends on the minimum wage in that region. The higher the minimum wage in an area, the higher the number …
ABSTRACT The population in North Sumatra Province consists of 14.8 million people with a male and female sex ratio of 95.60%. The disparity between women and men in North Sumatra Province is still quite high in the health, education and employment sectors. This study aims to determine the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model on the gender development index in North Sumatra Province and d…
ABSTRACT One of the nonparametric regression methods that can be used for classification is Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) which is enhanced using bootstrap aggregating (bagging) with 50 replications. This method is applied to conventional crime data, namely cases of theft which can be seen based on crime rates in Riau Province in 2016-2020. The dependent variable used is …
ABSTRACT The Indonesian government has made a policy to reduce the spread of the coronavirus by restricting entry/exit to Indonesian territory. As a result, there is a decrease in the number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia. The decrease in the data pattern was studied using the ARIMA Intervention method. The ARIMA Intervention method is used to see how big and how long duration entr…
ABSTRACT The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted various sectors of people's lives which have an impact on the level of people's welfare in an area. The value of PDRB, per capita expenditure, percentage of the poor, participation rate, and average schooling are some of the variables that can provide an overview of the welfare of the people in an area. Mapping and clustering can be done to determin…
ABSTRACT The Covid-19 pandemic entered Indonesia in March 2020, so the government imposed restrictions on people's movement in various regencies. The imposition of restrictions on people's movement will have an impact on the economy to the point of poverty. Poverty is influenced by several factors such as population, health, education, employment and economic factors. The poverty of a district…
Spatial regression analysis is a statistical method that is useful for analyzing spatial data. Spatial analysis assumes the presence of spatial dependencies. One way to find out if there is a spatial dependency is to do a spatial autocorrelation test. Spatial autocorrelation is used to analyze the similarity of values at observation locations with neighboring locations on the same variable.
Indonesia is a country with the fourth largest population in the world. The results of the population census in 2020 show the total population in Indonesia is 270.20 million people. The rapid population growth in Indonesia raises the problem of population density. The Government of the Republic of Indonesia through the National Family Planning Population Agency (BKKBN) has created a program. na…
ABSTRACT The economic problem that is very common in every country is inflation. Inflation is an increase in the price of goods or services in general and continuously, which can affect the prices of other goods. Indonesia is an oil importing country because oil products from Indonesia do not meet people's demands. If there is an increase in world oil prices, it will have an impact on the Indo…
ABSTRACT Sales transaction data is generated every day at 212 Mart Soebrantas Pekanbaru, so that the collected data becomes a pile of data that is rarely used. The data can be used to define business strategies to increase sales. Data mining techniques that can analyze the data are association rules. The method of analysis that utilizes the association rule technique is known as Market Bas…
ABSTRACT The Human Development Index (HDI) is a indicator in knowing the development of the quality of human life as a result of development in an area. Indonesia's HDI has always increased over the last twelve years, but the HDI of each regencies/city in Indonesia is very diverse. This shows that development in Indonesia has not been evenly distributed, so it is necessary to group regenci…
ABSTRACT Study that was face-to-face made students has high social interaction. Since the COVID-19 virus infected Indonesia in 2020, study meetings have been changed to an online study system that uses the internet to stay connected during the activity. This study aims to see the impact of online course based on someone's opinion. One of the appropriate methods for this research is sentime…
welfare of the people is something that every country wants to achieve, including Indonesia. This is certainly a special concern for the government to achieve people's welfare in each province. Many factors that affect people's welfare based on people's welfare indicators need an analysis that can see the relationship between two or more variables, namely multivariate analysis, one of whic…
The economy of a country is a very important factor to achieve people's welfare. There are many influencing aspects including exports, imports and CPI which are time series data where the resulting data is not always stationary. Therefore, the data will be analyzed using the VAR model which pays attention to the data and the TV-VAR model without paying attention to the data. This study aims…
Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) is a method of combining Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) with logistic regression which is applied to spatial data. The purpose of human development index (HDI) research is the GWLR model on community welfare status data and find factors that influence the possibility of increasing the welfare status of each in the Province of Indonesi…
ABSTRACT The increasing population of Indonesia may cause unemployment problems. Unemployment may occur due to an imbalance in the number of workers with the number of jobs. Based on data from Statistics Agency, one of the cities facing the problem of unemployment in Indonesia is Batam, which is located in the Riau Islands Province. Batam has the highest unemployment rate in the Riau Islan…
In this thesis discussed about the nonparametric regression model based on local polynomial estimators on gold prices in Indonesia. Local polynomial estimators can be obtained by minimizing Weighted Least Square (WLS), a local polynomial esimator that relies heavily on optimal bandwidth. Optimal bandwidth determination can be obtained using the Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) method. It is f…
This study aims to apply the Cox proportional hazard regression model to the ties event using two approach methods, ie the Efron approach and the Exact approach and find out its application in the case of traffic accidents at Pekanbaru city. The accident data was taken from the Satlantas Polrestabes Pekanbaru on 2020. There are four variables that are considered in this study, ie age, gender, h…