The increase in temperature has reached a critical level, posing significant threats to human life and the environment. This issue serves as a serious warning, highlighting the urgency of raising awareness about the risks of global warming and climate change. One mitigation effort that can be implemented is the accurate prediction of air temperature to support decision-making and climate adapta…
Stock investment is one of the financial instruments that plays an important role in encouraging economic growth. The rapid development of the capital market makes investors faced with the challenge of identifying patterns and groups of stocks that are suitable for their investment strategies. One approach that can be used to understand the characteristics of stocks is through clustering analys…
Indonesia’s foreign debt has continued to increase each year due to limited revenue and high government expenditures. Various factors influence the fluctuation in Indonesia’s foreign debt, including inflation, exports, imports, the exchange rate, and BI rate. The data for this study were obtained from official sources, namely the websites of the Ministry of Finance, Central Bureau of Statis…
Missing data refers to a condition where part of the dataset is unavailable due to unrecorded information during the data collection process. Missing data problems must be addressed because they can affect the accuracy of the analysis. This study aims to evaluate the performance of univariate imputation methods, namely Kalman Smoothing and STL Decomposition, on time series data obtained from a …
Unemployment is an important indicator in measuring the level of social welfare and development inequality between regions. Unemployment problems in Indonesia are caused by various factors that differ between regions. This study aims to model the unemployment rate and identify factors that affect the unemployment rate in Indonesia in 2023.
Indonesia faces challenges in improving the quality of education, one of which is indicated by variations in the average length of schooling between regions. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the average length of schooling in Indonesia using a nonparametric mixed spline and kernel regression method. This approach is used to capture linear, nonlinear, and local relationships…
Inflation is one of the important indicators in assessing the economic stability of a region. Fluctuating inflation movements require a forecasting method that can model the nature of its volatility. This study aims to forecast inflation in Pekanbaru City using the ARCH GARCH model which is optimized with the Kalman Filter method. The research analysis begins with building the best ARIMA model.…
Multiple linear regression analysis is a technique in statistical models that is used to analyze the influence of two or more independent variables on the dependent variable. One of the important assumptions in multiple linear regression analysis is the absence of multicollinearity in the regression model. In this research, the generalized ridge regression method is applied to overcome the prob…
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The classification of rural and urban areas has become an important aspect in development planning and policy-making. The aim of this study is to identify the best classification method and determine which variables significantly influence the classification of rural and urban villages in Sungai Penuh City. Binary logistic regression is used to identify the factors affecting area classification…
Challenges in classification modeling often arise due to imbalanced data distribution. Imbalance occurs when there one class has more than the other. Therefore, it needs to be overcome by the resampling method, namely by applying adaptive synthetic sampling (ADASYN). To evaluate the effectiveness of ADASYN, research will be conducted with logistic regression classification for Riau Province hou…
A time series is defined as a collection of quantitative observations arranged chronologically. Proper understanding of time series is a major problem in various fields. Currently, models have been developed that are quite good for making predictions. Among them are prophet and Neural Network Autoregressive (NNETAR). Prophet is a time series model developed by Sean J. Taylor and Benjamin Letham…
The rapid development of online transportation services has encouraged intense competition between companies providing online transportation application services, so companies need to increase the existence of more convenient services. Efforts to understand consumer demand can be done through consumer behavior analysis. This research was conducted with the aim of examining the preferences of Ri…
Palm oil is a key plantation commodity for Indonesia’s economy. Climate change is one of the factors influencing palm oil production, and its impact on the industry is significant. The data used in this study is the palm oil production data from large private plantations in Riau province from January 2006 to December 2022. The methods used are SARIMA, multiplicative Exponential Smoothing Holt…
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) in Indonesia remains a significant challenge in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly target 3.2 related to reducing newborn and under-five mortality. Unequal access to healthcare services and socioeconomic conditions across different regions in Indonesia result in varying IMR, necessitating spatial regression analysis to model and identify…
A time series is a set of observations taken at regular intervals over a period of time, which can be used to analyze data over time. The results of the analysis on the time series data are used for the basis of forecasting. This study applies Trigonometric, Box-Cox Transformations, ARMA errors, Trend, and Seasonal Components (TBATS) forecasting models to forecast coal use in power plants from …
Sumatra Island is the third largest island in Indonesia. The potential for economic growth in various regencies/cities on this island is enormous, driven by leading sectors such as mining, agriculture, plantations, and tourism. However, from 2019 to 2023, the economic growth rate of regencies/cities in Sumatra experienced fluctuations, indicating that the community and government were not yet r…
Air temperature is a weather parameter that affects various aspects of life, particularly in Pekanbaru, which often experiences extreme weather conditions. The accuracy of air temperature predictions is crucial for mitigating negative impacts on agriculture, energy, and urban planning. This study aims to improve the accuracy of air temperature predictions in Pekanbaru by using a Categorical Boo…
Education is one of the factors that developing Human Resources and plays an important role in producing high-quality Human Resources. To achieve a high-quality of Human Resources, the equitable distribution of school is a matter that requires the government’s attention. The distribution of school can be observed through data analysis. Clustering is one of the data analysis methods that can b…
Survival analysis is a method for analyzing data related to time. The Weibull distribution is one of the distributions that is widely used to analyze life time. The methods used to estimate parameters are the Maximum Likelihood method and the Bayesian method. This research aims to compare the Maximum Likelihood method and the Bayesian method in estimating parameters for survival analysis in the…