CD Disertasi

Model Simulasi Penanggulangan Penyakit Tuberkulosis Di Kabupaten Rokan Hilir Provinsi Riau

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The prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) in Indonesia constitutes 60% of all TB cases
worldwide, making it one of 22 high-burden countries. Riau Province, based on
Treatment Coverage (TC) percentage, ranks fourth among Sumatra's regions, with
a high TB prevalence of 11,344 cases. The distribution of suspected TB cases is
concentrated in Pekanbaru City, followed by Rokan Hilir Regency in second place.
In 2019, Rokan Hilir Regency reported 163 cases per 100,000 population,
indicating a 31.79% increase compared to TB cases in 2017. The high TB
prevalence in the Rokan Hilir district can be attributed to various factors such as
demographics, climate, individual characteristics, socioeconomic conditions, and
environmental factors. This study aims to develop a simulation model for TB
control in the Rokan Hilir Regency using a dynamic systems approach that
integrates demographic, climatic, individual, social, economic, and healthcare
resource dimensions. The research methodology employed a mix of qualitative
(case-control), quantitative (regression and correlation), and system dynamics
(system modelling) methods. The findings revealed a positive correlation between
TB prevalence and population size, with the population having a 67.50% impact
and the population density having a 69.10% impact on TB prevalence.
Socioeconomic determinants and physical environmental factors, including
education level, knowledge, room lighting, and housing density, significantly
influenced TB prevalence. Low education levels, lack of knowledge, crowded
living conditions, and inadequate lighting increased the risk of tuberculosis by
72.99%. Climate change did not have a significant impact on TB prevalence. The
simulation model for TB control in the Rokan Hilir district consists of three submodels:
demographic, socioeconomic and physical environment, infrastructure and
TB program performance. Different scenarios were developed for the model,
including business as usual (BAU), moderate, and optimistic scenarios. The BAU
scenario projected a TB prevalence of 133 per 100,000 population, the moderate
scenario projected a prevalence of 84 per 100,000 population, and the optimistic
scenario projected a prevalence of 64 per 100,000 population. Considering budget
constraints and stakeholder engagement, the most realistic scenario for TB control
is the moderate scenario, which aims for an annual prevalence reduction of 5.35%
(equivalent to 1.54 cases per 100,000 population per year).
Keywords: Tuberculosis, model, BAU, moderate, optimistic.

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Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

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No. Panggil

2010347383

Penerbit

Pekanbaru : Universitas Riau – Pascasarjana – Disertasi Ilmu Lingkungan., 2023

Deskripsi Fisik

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Bahasa

Indonesia

ISBN/ISSN

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Klasifikasi

2010347383

Tipe Isi

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Tipe Media

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Tipe Pembawa

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Edisi

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Subjek

ILMU LINGKUNGAN

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

FATAH

Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

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