CD Skripsi
Pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Melalui Ekspor Di Indonesia Tahun 2003-2023
ABSTRACT
This study aims to analyze the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the exchange rate on exports and foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia during the period 2003–2023, with exports as a mediating variable. The method employed is path analysis using annual data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) as well as related publications. The results indicate that FDI has a positive and significant effect on both exports and foreign exchange reserves, either directly or indirectly through exports. Exports are proven to have a positive and significant impact on foreign exchange reserves, reaffirming the strategic role of exports in strengthening Indonesia’s external position. Conversely, the exchange rate has a negative but insignificant effect on both exports and foreign exchange reserves. This finding suggests that rupiah depreciation does not automatically enhance export performance or increase foreign exchange reserves. The insignificance is influenced by two main factors: the dependence of domestic industries on imported raw materials and capital goods, and the dominance of Indonesia’s exports by primary commodities, which are more affected by global price fluctuations than by exchange rate movements. Overall, the findings emphasize that increasing FDI in export-oriented sectors is more effective in strengthening foreign exchange reserves than exchange rate adjustments. Therefore, structural policies such as export diversification, strengthening import-substitution industries, and improving national logistics efficiency are required to optimize the role of exports in supporting Indonesia’s foreign exchange resilience.
Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate, Exports, Foreign Exchange Reserves
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