CD Tesis
Model Hidrologi Prediksi Fluktuasi Tinggi Muka Air Tanah Lahan Gambut Di Pesisir Pulau Bengkalis Menggunakan Data Hujan Satelit
The coastal peatland area of Bengkalis Island experiences drought, fires, coastal erosion, and bogburst phenomena. Direct groundwater level (TMAT) monitoring using monitoring wells is expensive, necessitating alternative hydrological model predictions utilizing satellite rainfall data. This study developed an empirical model for predicting daily TMAT fluctuations in coastal peatland in Bengkalis Regency, using Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite rainfall data from water level loggers for the period October 2023–September 2024. The GPM satellite rainfall data was corrected with BMKG rainfall data (correction factor 0.7856). The hydrological model, based on rainfall-induced TMAT increases (dWRain) and TMAT decreases (dWLoss), was then evaluated over varying data lengths of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months using correlation (r), MAE, and MAPE. The results showed the highest correlation was obtained in the BMKG-corrected GPM scenario with a 12-month data length (r = 0.79). The best model simulation indicates that without rain for three consecutive days, the TMAT exceeds the critical threshold of -0.40 m (TMAT -0.4493 m), while extreme rainfall of 60 mm/day for five days can increase the TMAT above the ground surface (day 5: 0.1186 m). This model has the potential to be a tool for coastal peatland water management for fire mitigation and bogburst awareness.
Keywords: bogburst, coastal peat, GPM, peat fire, TMAT
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