CD Tesis
Analisis Pengaruh Penduduk Usia Produktif Dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) Terhadap Pdrb Per Kapita Provinsi Riau
This research examines the relationship between the Working Age Population, Human Development Index (HDI) and real GDP Per Capita in Riau Province for the periode between 2010 and 2019 by using Descriptive Analysis, Multiple Linear Regression (Ordinary Least Square), Error Correction Model (ECM), and Granger Causality Test Method.
The long-run and the short run model confirm the long-run and short-run relationship between the Working Age Population, Human Development Index (HDI) and real GDP Per Capita, however Granger Causality Test only shows a one-way causality running from Working Age Population and Human Development Index (HDI) to real GDP Per Capita and one-way causality from Human Development Index to Working Age Population. The Working Age Population had a positive and significant relationship on the real GDP Per Capita wether in the long-run or the short-run. Meanwhile the Human Development Index (HDI) had a negative and significant relationship on the real GDP Per Capita in the long-run, but insignificant in the short-run. Nevertheless, the shock in Working Age Population and Human Development Index (HDI) had a minimum impact on the real GDP Per Capita as shown by the error correction term (ECT) in ECM. Hence Riau Province needs policies to prepare the business sector in absorbing the working age population, in order to increase working age population’s productivity and their contribution in real GDP Per Capita.
Keywords : Working Age Population, Human Development Index (HDI), Real GDP Per Capita, Error Correction Model (ECM)
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